By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson

"It's demanding to speak truly approximately making an investment and make experience to bland readers even as. Katsenelson offers a lucid rationalization of today's markets with sound recommendation approximately how one can earn cash whereas fending off the traps that the marketplace units for exuberant bulls and fearful bears alike." -- Thomas G. Donlan, Barron's

"A completely stress-free learn. offers a transparent framework for fairness making an investment in today’s ‘sideways’ and unstable markets precious to everybody. transparent considering and transparent writing are usually not usually paired - good done!” -- Dick Weil, CEO, Janus Capital team

"The bible for the way to speculate within the such a lot tumultuous monetary industry setting because the nice melancholy. a real guidebook for the way to construct wealth prudently.” -- David Rosenberg, leader Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + affiliates Inc.

"A fabulous, grounded learn for brand new and pro traders alike, Katsenelson explains in undeniable English why volatility and sideways markets are a inventory picker's most sensible friend.” -- The Motley idiot,

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Extra resources for The Little Book of Sideways Markets: How to Make Money in Markets that Go Nowhere

Example text

I’ll use the word cyclical when referencing cyclical markets. During the twentieth century, almost every protracted bull market lasted about a decade and a half or so and was followed by a cowardly lion market that lasted just as long. 1. The only exception was the Great Depression, where the bull market was followed by a bear market. Sideways and bear markets are radically different in nature and your investment strategies need to be radically different, too. Let’s look at a really long-term picture of the market.

The rate of earnings growth—the speed of the train— is not constant. indd 27 11/1/10 3:13:25 PM [28] THE LITTLE BOOK OF S I D E WAY S M A R K E T S accelerating and decelerating with economic cyclicality; but despite annual fluctuations, from 1930 to 2000 longterm average nominal earnings growth varied only a few percentage points from the average and was about 5 percent (inflation was about 3 percent). Now that we have this little framework, the question of how long becomes a seventh-grade algebra problem.

In the late stage of a secular bull market P/Es stop rising. Investors receive “only” a return of 5 percent from earnings growth—and they are disappointed. ). indd 18 10/30/10 7:52:07 AM A S I D E WAY S V I E W OF THE WORLD [19] Suddenly, stocks are not rising 12 percent a year, not even 5 percent, but closer to zero—P/E decline is wiping out any benefits from earnings growth of 5 percent and the “lost decade” (or two) of a sideways market has begun. This Time Is Not Different I’ve done a few dozen presentations on the sideways markets since 2007.

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