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Extra resources for Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links

Sample text

6%. Global oil demand will remain robust in the short run as the world OPEC effective spare capacity recovery continues. 20 OPEC effective spare capacity rise by around 4%. Healthy inventory levels and adequate spare capacity will, though, contain price pressures. Global oil supply is set to rise by around 2 mbd in 2011, with members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries each contributing about half the projected growth. A supply-side development with major longer-term Jan Jan Jan Jan 2006 07 08 09 ramifications is the recovery of Iraqi output, which may rise by Source: JP Morgan Energy Strategy.

6 percentage points. Although food prices have a more direct effect on consumer price inflation than oil prices, pass-through from global prices to local prices may be higher for oil due to higher import dependence. 9 percentage points in 2012 (Box figure 2). The projected impact will be highest in India 1 Changes in GDP growth rates due to joint oil and food shocks 2012 2011 Developing Asia People's Rep. of China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Rep. 0 Percentage points Source: ADB estimates. Click here for figure data 2 Changes in CPI inflation due to joint oil and food shocks 2011 2012 Developing Asia People's Rep.

1 percentage point contribution to total growth. 12). 8% in the fourth quarter from the third. A sluggish labor market continues to weigh on private consumption. Unemployment is high and job offers remain well below precrisis levels. 12 Contributions to GDP growth, Japan mainly in manufacturing, before decelerating in the second, and GDP Private investment Private consumption Net exports with the labor market expected to improve only gradually, labor Public investment Residual Government consumption income is unlikely to make much headway in 2011.

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